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The Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) has barely begun observations and is already wowing us.
Images like itsCosmic Treasure Chesthave us anticipating even more cosmic glory.
And when the observatory sent out800,000 alertsin one night in February, we got a taste of the scientific boost it will give astronomers.
But while it's being lauded for its upcoming contributions to dark energy, supernovae, active galactic nuclei, and other distant and foundational subjects, it will also make important discoveries much closer to home.
Its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will find asteroids by the millions, and potentially dangerous Near-Earth Objects (NEO) by the tens of thousands. This is obviously important, considering the damage an impact can cause.
But the VRO is poised to do more than just detect them. New research to be published in The Astrophysical Journal shows how the Rubin will advance our understanding of NEOs beyond just detection.
It's titled "Predictions of Imminent Earth Impactors Discovered by LSST," and the lead author is Ian Chow.
Chow is from the DiRAC Institute and the Department of Astronomy at the University of Washington in Seattle. "Imminent impactors are natural bodies discovered in space before impacting the Earth," the researchers write.
"They provide a rare opportunity to characterize individual near-Earth objects (NEOs) in great detail as asteroids in space, meteors in Earth's atmosphere and meteorites on the ground." They say the LSST is "expected to transform our understanding of the NEO population." To dig deeper into this transformation, the researchers simulated 343 objects from NASA'sCenter for NEO Studiesdatabase.
They're one-meter size objects that were fireballs impacting Earth's atmosphere.
The VRO's capabilities are well-understood, and astronomers use a survey simulator calledSorchato understand how the observatory will perform in different endeavours.
In this work, the researchers simulated the pre-impact behaviour of the 343 objects with Sorcha to see how effective the observatory will be at detecting imminent impactors. This map shows the impact locations for all 343 objects in the research.
They're from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball and Bolide Database.
They span from February 1 1994 February January 1 2026.
The impactors are spread uniformly over Earth's surface.
Image Credit: Chow et al.
2026.
ApJ As a result of these simulations, Chow and his co-researchers expect the VRO to find about 1 or 2 meter-sized and larger NEOs each year that are at imminent risk of impacting Earth.